由3月份硅谷銀行倒閉引發的銀行業危機尚未結束，幾家地區銀行正面臨大量恐慌性提款和股價暴跌的壓力。就在幾天前，美國第一共和國銀行倒閉，被摩根大通收購。估值大師、紐約大學金融學教授阿斯沃斯·達摩達蘭5月6日表示，還會有更多美國銀行如“多米諾骨牌”般倒下，但相比于對其他行業的影響，這場危機更可能導致銀行業財富重新分配。

Days after the third bank collapsed in America, valuation guru Aswath Damodaran on Saturday said that there were more dominos waiting to fall in the country's banking business. 
在美國三家銀行接連倒閉后，估值大師、紐約大學金融學教授阿斯沃斯·達摩達蘭5月6日表示，還會有更多美國銀行如“多米諾骨牌”般倒下。

The banking crisis, which began in March with the fall of Silicon Valley Bank, is not over yet as several regional banks are facing the specter of rapid withdrawals and share prices crash. Just days ago, First Republic Bank collapsed and was taken over by JPMorgan.
由3月份硅谷銀行倒閉引發的銀行業危機尚未結束，幾家地區銀行正面臨大量恐慌性提款和股價暴跌的壓力。就在幾天前，美國第一共和國銀行倒閉，被摩根大通收購。

"I do believe that there are more dominos waiting to fall in the US banking business, with banks that have grown the most in the last few years at the most risk," Damodaran, who is also a Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University, said. "But I also believe that unlike 2008, this crisis will be more likely to redistribute wealth across banks than it is to create costs for the rest of us."
達摩達蘭表示：“我確實相信，還會有更多美國銀行如‘多米諾骨牌’般倒下，過去幾年增長最快的銀行面臨的風險最大。”他認為，與2008年金融危機不同的是，相比于對其他行業的影響，這場危機更可能導致銀行業財富重新分配。”

Damodaran said as Silicon Valley, Signature Bank, and First Republic have fallen, the 2023 banking crisis looks like a slow-motion car wreck but without the systemic consequences of prior crises. The professor further said that the market reaction to the current banking crisis has been sanguine, with the overall market not missing a step and the damage restricted to banks - and within banks, more to regional than national banks.
達摩達蘭表示，隨著硅谷銀行、簽名銀行和第一共和國銀行接連倒閉，2023年的銀行業危機看起來像是一場慢放的車禍，但與之前的危機相比，未發生系統性后果。他還表示，市場對當前銀行業危機的反應是樂觀的，影響僅限于銀行業，更多的是地區性銀行，而不是國家性銀行。

He said the conventional wisdom that market cap losses have been greater at smaller versus larger banks does not seem to hold up to scrutiny, since percentage losses have been greatest at the largest banks. Breaking down banks based on deposit growth over the last five years, he said, it was clear that the market cap loss has been greatest at the banks that have seen the most growth in deposits.
他表示，小型銀行市值損失比大型銀行更大的傳統觀點似乎經不起推敲，因為大型銀行的損失占比最大。根據過去五年的存款增長對銀行進行細分，很明顯，存款增長最快的銀行市值損失最大。

"There will be other dominos that fall, bank concentration (not profitability) will rise, systemic effects will stay small, accounting rules on mark to market will be tightened and regulators will add duration mismatch & deposit stickiness to the rule book," he noted.
他指出：“還會有其他多米諾骨牌倒下，銀行集中度（而非盈利能力）將上升，系統性影響將保持較小，以市值計價會計準則將收緊，監管機構將在規則手冊中增加期限錯配和存款粘性。”

 

編輯：董靜

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