今年以來，我國主要經濟指標持續改善。多位經濟學家普遍預計，未來我國經濟復蘇動能強勁，一季度GDP同比增速在4%左右。

 

China's major economic indicators have continued to improve since the start of the year. With stronger market expectations, the country's economic development is picking up. A number of economists believe that China's economic recovery will see a strong momentum, expecting GDP growth in the first quarter to be around four percent on a yearly basis, according to a report by Securities Times on Monday.

《證券日報》周一發布的報告稱，今年以來，我國主要經濟指標持續改善，市場預期加快好轉，經濟發展仍在企穩回升之中。多位經濟學家普遍預計，未來我國經濟復蘇動能強勁，一季度GDP同比增速在4%左右。

 

Industrial output increased by 2.4 percent year-on-year in the first two months, and the service sector production index rose by 5.5 percent on a yearly basis in the same period.

1月份至2月份工業增加值累計同比增長2.4%，服務業生產指數累計同比增長5.5%。

 

In March, the manufacturing PMI remained at a high level and the non-manufacturing PMI continued to rise. Regarding the low base in the same period last year, the year-on-year economic growth may further accelerate, said Bian Quanshui, chief macroeconomic researcher at Western Securities.

西部證券宏觀首席分析師邊泉水表示，3月份制造業PMI維持高位、非制造業PMI繼續上行，疊加去年同期基數偏低，經濟同比增速可能進一步加快。

 

The economic recovery since the year's beginning has been better than expected, Bian said, adding that GDP growth in the first quarter is likely to be higher than expected, at around 3.4 to 4 percent.

總體上看，年初以來經濟回升好于預期。一季度GDP同比增速可能高于預期，預計實現3.4%至4%左右的增長。

 

GDP growth in the first quarter is expected to be around 4.0 percent year-on-year, 1.1 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of 2022, said Feng Lin, a researcher with Golden Credit Rating.

東方金誠高級分析師馮琳表示，一季度GDP有望同比增長4.0%左右，增速比2022年四季度加快1.1個百分點。

 

The rapid recovery of household consumption and the high growth of infrastructure investment in the first quarter are the main driving forces for the economic recovery in the first quarter, Feng said, adding that resilient manufacturing investment and the diminishing drag effect of real estate investment have all boosted the economic growth.

馮琳表示，一季度助力經濟回升的主要推動力有兩個，首先是居民消費較快回升。其次是基建投資保持高增長，制造業投資韌性強，地產投資的拖累效應在減弱。

 

Rising market demand is also playing a certain role in boosting confidence in manufacturing investment, which will remain resilient in the short term, the researcher said.

當前市場需求上升，也對制造業投資信心起到一定提振作用。短期內制造業投資仍會保持較強韌性。

 

According to a research report by Great Wall Securities, GDP in the first quarter is projected to rebound to around 4.3 percent, of which government consumption expenditure and capital formation, important supporting forces for the economic recovery in the first quarter, will be about 0.8 percentage points and 2 percentage points, respectively.

長城證券研報顯示，測算一季度GDP已經回升到4.3%左右，其中政府消費支出和資本形成分別拉動約0.8和2個百分點，是一季度經濟回升的重要支撐力量。

 

As domestic consumption is key to economic growth, macro policies need to continue to boost consumption, stabilize investment and boost market confidence, Feng added.

馮琳認為，當前要更加倚重內需，宏觀政策需要在促消費、穩投資、提振市場信心等方面持續發力。

 

來源：中國日報

編輯：yaning

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