美國商務(wù)部日前宣布，美國第一季度年化國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值下降1.6%，而第二季度下降0.9%。從非官方角度來看，這預(yù)示著美國陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

The US economy shrank again in the last three months, unofficially signaling the start of a recession.

過去三個(gè)月美國經(jīng)濟(jì)再次縮水，從非官方的角度來看，這預(yù)示著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)開始衰退。

The commerce department announced Thursday that gross domestic product (GDP) – a broad measure of the price of goods and services – decreased at an annualized rate of 0.9% in the second quarter after falling at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first three months.

繼第一季度國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）下降1.6%之后，美國商務(wù)部7月28日宣布，第二季度GDP下降了0.9%。國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值是對(duì)商品和服務(wù)價(jià)值的廣義衡量指標(biāo)。

The bad news will be a major blow for the Biden administration as it prepares for a tough midterm election season. White House officials have tried to tamp down talk of a recession, arguing that many parts of the economy remain strong.

這一噩耗對(duì)于正準(zhǔn)備應(yīng)對(duì)局勢(shì)嚴(yán)峻的中期選舉的拜登政府是一個(gè)沉重打擊。白宮官員試圖平息有關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的傳言，堅(jiān)稱經(jīng)濟(jì)的多個(gè)方面仍保持強(qiáng)勁態(tài)勢(shì)。

The growth rate stands in marked contrast to the robust 6.9% annual increase in GDP recorded in the final quarter of 2021 when the economy roared back from Covid shutdowns.

二季度數(shù)據(jù)與2021年第四季度6.9%的GDP增長率形成了鮮明對(duì)比，當(dāng)時(shí)美國經(jīng)濟(jì)正從新冠疫情中復(fù)蘇。

The fast pace of growth contributed to soaring inflation – now running at 40-year highs – and the Federal Reserve’s decision to sharply increase interest rates in order to bring down prices.

美國經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長致使出現(xiàn)40年以來最嚴(yán)重的通脹，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決定大幅上調(diào)利率以打壓物價(jià)。

The changing economic environment was reflected in the GDP report. Consumer spending – the largest driver of the economy – slowed over the quarter but remained positive, rising 1% on an annual basis. Residential fixed investment, or home construction, dropped 14% on an annual basis and slowing business inventories, goods produced but not yet sold by businesses, dragged down the GDP number.

二季度的GDP數(shù)據(jù)反映出美國當(dāng)前持續(xù)變化的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境。作為經(jīng)濟(jì)最大驅(qū)動(dòng)力的消費(fèi)者支出在二季度減緩，但仍保持積極態(tài)勢(shì)，年化增長率達(dá)到1%。居民固定資產(chǎn)投資（即商品房建設(shè)）卻下跌了14%，而企業(yè)庫存則在拖累GDP增長率。

Two quarters of negative GDP growth are widely regarded as a signal that the economy has gone into recession. But the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end. While the GDP figures will play into the NBER’s final verdict, it also looks at a wider range of economic factors, including the jobs market, and is unlikely to give its decision soon.

GDP連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度負(fù)增長被普遍視為經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退的一個(gè)信號(hào)。然而，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退與否，最終還需要美國國家經(jīng)濟(jì)研究局（NBER）裁定宣布。NBER的最終裁決會(huì)考慮GDP數(shù)據(jù)，也會(huì)考慮就業(yè)市場(chǎng)等更廣泛的經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)，因此不會(huì)很快做出裁決。

"The 0.9% annualized fall in GDP in the second quarter is disappointing but doesn’t mean the economy is in recession,” said Andrew Hunter, senior US economist at Capital Economics. “That said, the details show that higher rates and surging inflation are weighing on underlying demand, and we expect only a muted rebound in economic growth over the second half of the year.”

凱投宏觀資深美國經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家安德魯·亨特表示：“美國GDP第二季度下降0.9%，這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)令人失望，但并不意味著美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退。即便如此，有細(xì)節(jié)表明，利率上調(diào)和通脹飆升對(duì)潛在需求產(chǎn)生了壓力，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)在下半年僅可能出現(xiàn)溫和反彈。”

In the meantime, pressure remains on the Biden administration. Surveys of consumer confidence are falling as recession fears grow and Joe Biden’s overall and economic approval poll numbers are at the lowest levels of his presidency.

與此同時(shí)，拜登政府仍面臨壓力。調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，隨著對(duì)衰退的擔(dān)憂加劇，消費(fèi)者信心受損，拜登的總體支持率及其經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的支持率已跌至任內(nèi)最低水平。

In a statement, Biden said it was “no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation. But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.”

拜登在一份聲明中表示，隨著美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)采取行動(dòng)降低通脹，經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩不足為奇。他還辯稱，在面對(duì)歷史性全球挑戰(zhàn)的情況下，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然處于良性軌道，過了這個(gè)過渡階段，未來經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)變得更加強(qiáng)大和穩(wěn)定。

Republicans countered that the report shows “Democrats’ reckless economic policies are destroying our economy”.

共和黨人反駁稱，GDP報(bào)告顯示，民主黨不計(jì)后果的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策正在摧毀美國經(jīng)濟(jì)。

The latest GDP figures came a day after the Fed announced another three-quarter of a percentage point increase in its benchmark interest rates as it fights to tame inflation.

最新GDP數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布前一天，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)為遏制通貨膨脹，宣布再上調(diào)基準(zhǔn)利率75個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

Prices rose at an annual rate of 9.1% in the year to June, driven up by soaring costs for fuel, food and shelter.

在能源、食品價(jià)格和居住成本持續(xù)攀升的情況下，截至6月，美國消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)（CPI）上漲9.1%。

While parts of the US economy remain strong – most notably the jobs market – the Covid pandemic continues to play havoc with global supplies and the war in Ukraine has pushed up energy prices.

雖然美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的部分領(lǐng)域仍然在強(qiáng)勁增長，尤其是就業(yè)市場(chǎng)，但新冠肺炎疫情持續(xù)破壞全球供應(yīng)鏈，俄烏軍事沖突致使能源價(jià)格飆升。

The confusing economic outlook has triggered sell-offs in stock markets around the world and led some economists to predict a recession is coming. Nearly 70% of leading academic economists polled by the Financial Times last month predicted the US economy will tip into a recession next year.

對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的恐慌引發(fā)了全球股票拋售，一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)衰退即將到來。6月，《金融時(shí)報(bào)》對(duì)近七成頂尖學(xué)術(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家進(jìn)行了民意調(diào)查，他們認(rèn)為美國經(jīng)濟(jì)在2023年將陷入衰退。

Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he did not believe the US was now in a recession. But he said the Fed was prepared to keep raising rates in order to bring prices back down and that it was inevitable that such a move would slow the economy and affect the job market. “Price stability is what makes the whole economy work,” said Powell.

7月27日，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾表示，美國經(jīng)濟(jì)并未陷入衰退，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已準(zhǔn)備繼續(xù)加息，以使物價(jià)回落，而這將不可避免地會(huì)減緩經(jīng)濟(jì)增長，影響就業(yè)市場(chǎng)。他還表示，價(jià)格穩(wěn)定是整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的動(dòng)力。

英文來源：衛(wèi)報(bào)

翻譯&編輯：丹妮