近期國內(nèi)多地出現(xiàn)聚集性疫情，加之國際地緣政治不穩(wěn)定因素顯著增加，我國企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營活動受到一定影響。3月份，制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理指數(shù)、非制造業(yè)商務(wù)活動指數(shù)和綜合PMI產(chǎn)出指數(shù)均降至收縮區(qū)間，表明我國經(jīng)濟(jì)總體景氣水平有所回落。但分析人士仍對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)中長期前景持樂觀態(tài)度。專家預(yù)測，未來幾個月，政府將出臺更有力的財政政策和更寬松的貨幣政策，進(jìn)一步提振經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

China's manufacturing activities contracted in March for the first time in five months due to various uncertainties and negative impacts from home and abroad.
受國內(nèi)外多重不穩(wěn)定因素影響，3月份中國制造業(yè)活動出現(xiàn)五個月來的首次收縮。

However, analysts and officials remain upbeat about the medium- and long-term prospects of the Chinese economy, as the country still has room for macro policy fine-tuning and adjustments.
然而，分析人士和官員對中國經(jīng)濟(jì)中長期前景仍持樂觀態(tài)度，認(rèn)為中國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策仍有作為空間。

They expected a stronger fiscal policy and more easing monetary measures in the coming months to further shore up growth, including tax reductions, more infrastructure investment, and interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts.
他們預(yù)測，未來幾個月，政府將出臺更有力的財政政策和更寬松的貨幣政策，包括減稅、增加基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資、下調(diào)存貸款基準(zhǔn)利率和存款準(zhǔn)備金率，進(jìn)一步提振經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

The purchasing managers index for China's manufacturing sector stood at 49.5 in March, compared with 50.2 in February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, slipping into contraction after staying in expansionary territory for four consecutive months. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.
國家統(tǒng)計局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，3月份中國制造業(yè)采購經(jīng)理指數(shù)（PMI）為49.5，而2月份為50.2。中國制造業(yè)PMI在連續(xù)四個月保持?jǐn)U張態(tài)勢后，開始下滑。PMI以50點為“榮枯分水線”。

The nonmanufacturing PMI, which covers the services and construction sectors, was at 48.4 versus 51.6 in February, slipping into contraction for the first time in seven months, according to the NBS.
根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)，涵蓋服務(wù)業(yè)和建筑業(yè)的非制造業(yè)PMI為48.4，2月份為51.6，七個月來首次出現(xiàn)收縮。

Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician with the NBS, said the resurgence in COVID-19 cases that affected some areas has dealt a blow to service sectors, such as transportation, accommodations and catering.
國家統(tǒng)計局高級統(tǒng)計師趙慶河表示，國內(nèi)部分地區(qū)疫情出現(xiàn)反彈，給交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)和餐飲業(yè)等服務(wù)行業(yè)帶來沖擊。

For manufacturers, the resurgence has affected the production and operation of some enterprises, and the escalating geopolitical tensions led to a decline in or the cancellation of export orders, Zhao said.
趙慶河稱，疫情反復(fù)使部分制造業(yè)企業(yè)的生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營受到影響，不斷升級的地緣政治緊張局勢導(dǎo)致出口訂單減少或取消。

Zhao added that midstream and downstream enterprises are also facing pressure from the rising costs of raw materials, with surging commodity prices clouding the outlook.
他表示，中下游企業(yè)也面臨著原材料成本上漲的壓力，大宗商品價格大幅上漲給行業(yè)前景蒙上陰影。

However, businesses remained upbeat about future business prospects, Zhao said. The enterprises surveyed said that suppressed demand and production would gradually recover with the government's effective measures to control the pandemic, and the market is likely to rebound.
不過，趙慶河表示，企業(yè)對未來的商業(yè)前景仍持樂觀態(tài)度。調(diào)查企業(yè)反映，隨著疫情得到有效控制，受抑制的產(chǎn)需將會逐步恢復(fù)，市場有望回暖。

Despite the downward pressures, Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, highlighted that the high-tech manufacturing PMI had stayed in expansionary territory, saying this indicates the steady progress of economic structural transformation and high-quality development.
粵開證券首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅志恒強(qiáng)調(diào)，盡管面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)下行壓力，但高科技制造業(yè)PMI一直處于擴(kuò)張區(qū)間，這表明經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型和高質(zhì)量發(fā)展穩(wěn)步推進(jìn)。

Luo said the current economic situation requires a proactive fiscal policy, such as promoting the issuance of local government special bonds to accelerate infrastructure construction and stabilize investment, and more efforts should also be made to ensure the basic livelihood of people affected by COVID outbreaks.
羅志恒認(rèn)為，當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢下需要采取積極的財政政策，比如加快地方政府專項債券發(fā)行，推動基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)和穩(wěn)定投資，還應(yīng)該采取更多措施，保障受疫情影響地區(qū)人民群眾的基本生活。

Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Chasing International Economic Institute, estimated that the manufacturing PMI reading may expand above the 50-point mark in the following months with the help of the government's effective measures to control the pandemic and stabilize growth.
財新國際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院副院長吳朝明估計，隨著政府采取有效措施控制疫情和穩(wěn)定增長，未來幾個月制造業(yè)PMI可能會重回50點以上。

Experts said the intensifying economic headwinds could persuade the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, to launch near-term easing measures such as cutting the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates.
專家表示，為應(yīng)對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展所面臨的壓力，中國人民銀行可能會實施短期寬松政策，下調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率和政策利率。

At its first-quarter monetary policy committee meeting, the PBOC declared its determination to stabilize the economy by pledging "more substantial support" for the real economy and efforts to improve the transmission mechanism of monetary policy, according to a statement released on Wednesday.
3月30日消息稱，在中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會2022年第一季度例會上，中國人民銀行宣布其決心穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)，承諾為實體經(jīng)濟(jì)提供更有力支持，進(jìn)一步疏通貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。

The statement highlighted the emerging challenges posed by escalating geopolitical tensions and more frequent domestic COVID-19 outbreaks, in addition to the lingering pressures from shrinking demand, supply shocks and weaker expectations.
中國人民銀行聲明強(qiáng)調(diào)，當(dāng)前國內(nèi)疫情發(fā)生頻次有所增多，地緣政治沖突升級，經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展面臨需求收縮、供給沖擊、預(yù)期轉(zhuǎn)弱三重壓力。

Yu Yongding, a senior economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said China should stick with a fairly expansionary monetary policy to ensure the stabilization of growth, in spite of overseas central banks' interest rate hikes and potentially higher inflationary pressure.
中國社會科學(xué)院高級經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家余永定表示，盡管海外央行加息，通脹壓力可能上升，中國應(yīng)堅持?jǐn)U張性貨幣政策，以確保經(jīng)濟(jì)增長穩(wěn)定。

"The risk of inflation has risen due to changes in the international environment. But monetary tightening won't be the sensible solution to inflation caused by supply shocks," Yu said.
他表示：“國際環(huán)境的變化導(dǎo)致通脹風(fēng)險加劇。但貨幣緊縮并不是解決供應(yīng)沖擊造成的通貨膨脹的明智辦法。”

If inflationary pressure worsens amid restrictions on the global commodity supply, responsive measures other than monetary policy should be taken, as tightening monetary policy in such circumstances risks triggering deflation, said Yu, who is also a former member of the PBOC's monetary policy committee.
余永定曾任中國人民銀行貨幣政策委員會委員，他認(rèn)為，如果在全球商品供應(yīng)受到限制的情況下通脹壓力加劇，則應(yīng)采取貨幣政策以外的應(yīng)對措施，因為在這種情況下收緊貨幣政策有可能引發(fā)通貨緊縮。

It is advisable for the PBOC to further ease credit conditions to tide over small and medium-sized enterprises amid difficulties while supporting infrastructure investment by reducing the financing costs of related government bonds, he added.
余永定還表示，中國人民銀行宜進(jìn)一步放寬信貸條件，以幫助中小企業(yè)渡過難關(guān)，同時通過降低相關(guān)政府債券的融資成本來支持基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資。

來源：中國日報
編輯：董靜